What I think I think about Braves as final stretch approaches

Manager Walt Weiss has played Jim Jarvis regularly at shortstop over the past two months. Jarvis is a nice story, but the team needs more juice offensively and the above configuration provides it. I’m curious what impact Thomas will make with more playing time.

While Jarvis has struggled offensively — and even committed a couple of errors at shortstop lately — it’s easy to see him hanging around the majors. He’s usually an exceptional defender with good speed and baseball smarts. He’s also a delightful guy who’d be welcomed in any clubhouse. But the team can’t afford his offensive limitations on a daily basis right now.

“It happens at every level where you go through phases where you feel good swinging the bat, then there’s other times you don’t,” Jarvis told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Obviously up here it gets magnified just because the level of talent on the field on the other end. The pitchers don’t make as many mistakes, so you aren’t going to get as many cheap hits. The defenses are going to clean up a lot of stuff.

“I think the biggest thing is probably trying to stay confident about it knowing there’s another end to it. You keep working in the cages, same as always.”

2. I think AJ Smith-Shawver is an important part of the postseason rotation.

Smith-Shawver has the live arm that plays up in October. I think he plays an important role in the playoffs, maybe even as the team’s Game 2 starter. He ran out of steam in his start Wednesday, but there was plenty of reason to be encouraged. It’ll take some time, but if he recaptures the form he showed earlier last season before requiring Tommy John surgery, he’ll be valuable.

“He’s going to be an asset for us,” third baseman Austin Riley said.

A future rotation that includes prime versions of Smith-Shawver and Didier Fuentes is an exciting thought, but let’s get through 2026 first.

3. I think the Braves still should’ve done more at the trade deadline.

Bold, isn’t it? While missing on Jacob deGrom might be a blessing in disguise because of nagging minor injuries, the Braves could’ve used another higher-end starter and bullpen piece. They’re talented but flawed. The postseason is tough to predict — as 2021 taught us, teams can suddenly come together and make an unexpected run — but the Braves look like a team that could’ve used more additions.

Any of an impact starter, reliever or bat could’ve made a difference projecting forward (and that’s said knowing Tyler Mahle has been a quality starter through three turns).

4. I think the Braves don’t match up on paper with the other rotations in the likely playoff field.

The staff has done a generally fine job lately as the offense has struggled. But compare the Braves’ pitching staff to the Brewers and Dodgers — you’d take the other two.

The Padres’ trade deadline got them Robbie Ray and Casey Mize, who could be the difference in a series. The Cubs added Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes. The Phillies have Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler (who’s had a couple of duds recently but gets the benefit of the doubt), Jesús Luzardo and a rejuvenated Aaron Nola. If Arizona makes it, we just saw the Braves look lifeless against Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez.

These games don’t unfold on paper. But the Braves lack a clear No. 2 pitcher behind Chris Sale right now — at least one that’d match what the other teams can throw. Smith-Shawver possesses the upside to change that equation, which is why he’s so important.

It’s unfortunate the Braves lost Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider. This could’ve been a much different outlook. But these are their circumstances, and they’ll need some starters to catch fire in October.

5. I think Dylan Dodd has a big postseason moment.

I do like how the bullpen shapes up if it’s healthy and not overworked by that point (a big if). One reason why is Dodd’s emergence. What a story he’s been as someone who failed as a starter, bounced between Triple-A and the majors trying to stick, then found his niche as a reliever. The Braves have trusted him in high-leverage spots and he’s delivered. He could become a more recognizable name this October.

“Dylan has been great, man,” Weiss said. “He’s become a difference-maker in that bullpen. Seeing him as a starter a couple of years ago, you couldn’t have anticipated this. You didn’t know what the evolution was going to be. … He’s pitching in a lot of big spots for us.”

6. I think the Braves need more from Ozzie Albies.

This season was a renaissance for the second baseman, but he’s tailed off the past two months. Albies rebounded from a tough May to post a .738 OPS in June. He hit .232 in July but managed a .736 OPS. Now, he’s hitting .161 with a .565 OPS in August.

The Braves don’t have the lineup length of some past years. They’re top-heavy, and that’s factoring in that outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. and Riley haven’t had their expected seasons. He doesn’t have to be the Albies who tormented opposing pitching in April, but it’d be quite the boost if he steadied himself.

7. I think Matt Olson finishes third for National League MVP.

It feels like the MVP race is Pete Crow-Armstrong versus Shohei Ohtani, and it probably is because both have been brilliant and have well-laid-out cases. Olson, though, deserves mention in the discussion. He has a real chance to finish third, which would best his fourth-place finish in 2023.

Olson has once again played every game, posting an .886 OPS with brilliant defense at first base. Attention often centers on how he isn’t a rah-rah type of guy, but he’s a leader, tone-setter and exceptional teammate who’s beloved by everyone he interacts with in the organization. He’s close to his second 40-homer season with the Braves.

“Those other two guys (Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani) are being talked about as MVP candidates because they should be,” Weiss said. “But I do think that Matt Olson is in that conversation, especially if he continues to perform the way he has and finishes strong.”

Corbin Carroll, Andy Pages, Brice Turang and others could create strong cases to finish third.

8. I think Chris Sale finishes top three for NL Cy Young.

This looks like it’ll be Jacob Misiorowski’s award barring a collapse or injury. The runner-up spot might come down to Sale versus Sanchez. The former has the edge in ERA — 2.14 against 2.50 — but Sanchez has made four more starts and logged over 30 more innings. Sanchez’s fWAR is 7.0, well above Sale’s 4.2. The Braves are managing Sale’s workload down the stretch, too.

9. I still think the Braves win the NL East.

This might seem optimistic with how it feels right now, but I do think the Braves ultimately hang onto this division — which they only lead by 4½ games entering their Thursday matinee in Chicago.

The Braves and Phillies will play each other seven times in a 10-game stretch in September. How close will the division race be by that point, and will the Braves even just have to go, say, 3-4 in those games to prevent the Phillies from surging? There’s a lot to be determined by the time we get there. But I think the Braves have enough to hold off Philadelphia and win the division for the seventh time in nine years.

10. … but I don’t think the Braves get a first-round bye.

The first-round bye has been controversial since its implementation, with some believing it somewhat ices the team that’s sitting idle, but it’d be big for these Braves. The Dodgers’ recent struggles temporarily put the Braves in the No. 2 seed last week, and it’ll be a tight race to the finish. But I expect the Brewers to secure the top seed and the Dodgers to finish well. The Braves host the Dodgers next week, but Los Angeles otherwise has a very generous schedule to close the regular season.

So the Braves would host the best-of-three Wild Card series at Truist Park. Right now, that’d be against the Padres, who eliminated them in San Diego during their last postseason appearance.