Democrats fear a GOP surge in the runoffs could flip a state Senate seat

One of the biggest tests of Democratic turnout before Georgia’s special redistricting session is unfolding in a suburban Gwinnett County district that should be safely blue. But early voting numbers are giving Democrats heartburn.

The special election to fill the remainder of former state Sen. Nabilah Parkes’ term is set for Tuesday, the same day as Republican runoffs for governor and U.S. Senate. While Democrats have no marquee races on the ballot, Republicans do. And so far, GOP voters are turning out at a much higher rate.

That dynamic won’t affect the Democratic runoff between Rahul Garabadu and state Rep. Ruwa Romman to determine who succeeds Parkes next year, a race we profiled earlier this week.

But it will shape the race to fill the seat for the rest of this year, where Democrat Adrienne White faces Republican Aizaz Shaikh in a head-to-head contest.

If Republicans flip the seat, it also would give the GOP-controlled Senate another vote as lawmakers return to Atlanta on Wednesday for a special legislative session, where a bitter fight over redistricting and voting rules is expected.

Former state Rep. Beth Moore warned of a “nightmare scenario” after the first days of early voting showed Republicans with a 60-40 turnout edge.

“In a district that would normally be an easy win for Democrats, Republican voters are vastly outpacing Democratic voters in the first three days. Why? Because Republicans are incentivized to show up for the top of their ticket, in the runoffs for U.S. Senate and the governor’s office,” she said.

Others are also rattled. Activist Seth Taylor called the turnout gap a “five-alarm fire.” Democrats are planning a canvassing push Saturday in hopes of boosting White’s chances.

“This runoff is close,” organizers said, “and every conversation counts.”

Things to know

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Good morning. Here are three things to know today:

History lesson

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Larry Walker Jr., the former Georgia House majority leader, died Tuesday. Walker, often referred to a “the gentleman from Perry,” was the father of state Sen. Larry Walker III and a giant in Middle Georgia politics.

The elder Walker was one of the last Democrats to help lead the state House before Republicans took control ahead of the 2005 session.

Back then, as it is now, redistricting was the touchy topic as Democrats tried to delay a shift in the state’s politics. Now, it’s Republicans eyeing overhauling the maps as Democrats are making gains.

In a 2008 oral history interview, Walker Jr. spoke about a conversation he had with then-Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes.

“He told me, he said, ‘People in Georgia don’t care about reapportionment.’ And I said, ‘Governor, we made them care about it,’” Walker said. “And I think we did. I think we went too far.”

These days, Democrats are hoping a Republican push to redraw the lines will once again get voters’ attention. The special session starts next week. Voters will have the last word in November.

Rally, rally

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Trump will hold another tele-rally for Jones’ campaign for governor tonight at 7, his second for Jones since May.

Jones is leaning hard on Trump’s endorsement heading into next week’s brutal runoff against Jackson.

He has aggressively reminded GOP voters not only of Trump’s backing, but also of his own early support for Trump’s 2016 campaign, when the New York business owner was still a political curiosity.

Jackson has tried to blunt that advantage by promising to be “Trump’s favorite governor” and leaning on his own MAGA support.

A Jones loss would be a rare Georgia setback for Trump this cycle. Since 2024, most of the candidates he backed have prevailed, strengthening his claim that his endorsement is decisive with GOP voters.

A win could be sweet revenge for the president after his 2022 endorsed candidate for governor, David Perdue, lost his GOP primary against Kemp.

Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms said the rally makes it clear “Trump wants to pick the next governor of Georgia.”

“Burt Jones refuses to stand up for Georgians as they face higher costs and threats to their health care because of Donald Trump’s reckless policies,” she said in a news release. “He isn’t running to serve Georgians, he’s running to be Trump’s lackey.”

Chatter box

Credit: Abbey Cutrer/AJC

Credit: Abbey Cutrer/AJC

Ryan Wilson, the entrepreneur who co-founded The Gathering Spot, urged the Atlanta City Council this week to steer more investment toward struggling neighborhoods he said have long been overlooked.

People close to Wilson say the appearance could mark the start of a more visible civic role. And it has already fueled some buzz around whether he could consider a run for mayor in 2029, when incumbent Andre Dickens will be term-limited.

Platner fallout

Credit: AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty

Credit: AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty

Some national Democrats have condemned or distanced themselves from their party’s Maine U.S. Senate nominee Graham Platner after a string of controversies involving past online posts and a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol.

Others have steered clear of the controversy completely, saying they’re focused on their own campaigns.

U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff is in the latter camp. His campaign says he’s sticking with the response he has used previously when asked about Platner: He’s focused on his own reelection fight in Georgia.

His counterpart, Sen. Raphael Warnock, told Semafor on Wednesday that Democrats don’t need Platner to win, even as they set their hopes on retaking the Senate majority.

“We have many opportunities. And that map has grown wider as the American people have gotten to see the awful impact of the Trump policies,” Warnock said.

Listen up

Credit: Ben Hendren

Credit: Ben Hendren

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast, former Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin weighs in on preparations for the World Cup and today’s “Day of Unity” event ahead of a redistricting special session. Then MARTA police Chief Scott Kreher talks about the surge in violent incidents on the transit system just as hundreds of thousands of World Cup visitors are about to arrive.

You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

Today in Washington

Radio free Zoller

Credit: David Tulis

Credit: David Tulis

It’s the end of an era at WDUN radio in Gainesville, where longtime host Martha Zoller announced Wednesday she’ll soon step back from her daily “Martha Zoller Show.”

Zoller has been a pioneer as a rare woman in conservative talk radio since she launched her show nearly two decades ago. With longform interviews and deep policy dives, it quickly became a required stop for GOP leaders and candidates alike, and even some Democrats. The show now airs live daily from the square in Gainesville.

Zoller isn’t completely done with political media. She’ll remain on as a political analyst for WDUN and will continue her duties as a co-host of the Georgia Gang.

Shoutout

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Before you go

Credit: Handout/U.S. Rep. Clay Fuller

Credit: Handout/U.S. Rep. Clay Fuller

The Republican team won the Congressional Baseball Game for the sixth year in a row. Georgia U.S. Reps. Rich McCormick, Andrew Clyde and Clay Fuller were on the GOP team that won in an 11-2 blowout over Democrats. Organizers said the game raised more than $3.2 million for charity.

That’ll do it for us today. As always, you can send your best scoops, gossip and insider information to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.