Why Georgia’s primaries could launch a new month of political chaos

By Tuesday night, Georgians will know much more about who voters want leading both parties into one of the state’s most consequential election cycles in years. Races for every statewide constitutional office, Congress, the Legislature and top judicial posts are up for grabs.

But in Georgia, being the top vote-getter isn’t always enough. Candidates must clear 50% to avoid a runoff. That means Tuesday may not settle the biggest races. It could just launch another four weeks of political chaos.

Here’s what to watch.

Credit: Patricia Murphy

Credit: Patricia Murphy

How much does the Democratic turnout edge matter?

Democrats head into Tuesday’s primary with turnout bragging rights after a surge in early voting.

More than 1 million Georgians have already cast ballots, a 19% increase from this stage in the 2022 midterm primary. Democrats have clear reason for optimism: 57% of early voters chose their party’s ballot.

Democrats see the numbers as incontrovertible evidence of enthusiasm headed into November — and potential fuel for upsets in nonpartisan races for Georgia Supreme Court that will be decided on Tuesday.

But there are caveats. Republican leaders have spent weeks pointing to lagging turnout to prod voters who are more likely to wait until Election Day. There are pockets of strong GOP turnout in the Atlanta exurbs and rural Georgia.

As NBC News analyst Steve Kornacki told the “Politically Georgia” podcast: “That Republican vote, and really the more pro-Trump side of the Republican vote, does come out disproportionately on Election Day.”

If he’s right, the early Democratic advantage could narrow by midnight.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Is Trump’s endorsement enough?

Just before Tuesday’s primary, Trump took to social media to reaffirm his endorsement of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’ campaign for governor, calling him a “warrior” who will fight for his MAGA agenda in Georgia.

But the bigger issue is how much Trump’s backing still matters in a race upended by billionaire Rick Jackson’s fortune.

Jackson went from a first-time candidate to a neck-and-neck contender with Jones in just three months after spending at least $83 million of his own money. Now, the race could hinge on deep-red Republican counties beyond Atlanta’s inner suburbs.

And if the race goes to a runoff, Trump becomes an even bigger variable. Though he’s endorsed Jones, he hasn’t attacked Jackson. And he’s stayed entirely out of the U.S. Senate race.

The question after tonight: Does Trump let his endorsement gather dust? Or does he even more actively intervene in Georgia’s marquee contests?

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Can Kemp turn an outsider into a contender?

For much of his second term, Gov. Brian Kemp has been the most popular Republican in Georgia, powerful enough to steer his agenda through the Legislature and build a national profile distinct from Trump.

Tuesday tests whether that clout is transferable.

Kemp’s brand remains formidable. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed his approval rating among likely Republican primary voters at 85%. Even among Democrats, 42% gave him positive marks. Those are figures most big-state governors could only dream of.

But Derek Dooley, the former football coach Kemp helped draft into the U.S. Senate race, is still trying to turn the governor’s endorsement into support of his own in a three-way contest against U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins.

That’s the challenge Kemp created when he passed on a Senate run against Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff.

And the primary will test whether Kemp’s argument that the only way to defeat Ossoff is to draft an outsider without a long political record to defend. If he falls short, it will raise hard questions about the limits of Kemp’s political reach.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Can Keisha Lance Bottoms avoid overtime?

Keisha Lance Bottoms has led the Democratic race for governor from the start. But the bigger question is whether the former Atlanta mayor can clear 50% and avoid a runoff.

If she falls short, the race will change quickly. In a one-on-one contest, Bottoms would face a direct challenge to her record at Atlanta City Hall, her decision not to seek a second term and Democratic anxiety about whether she could win a general election.

The race will likely hinge on metro Atlanta, a Democratic stronghold and a linchpin of any successful statewide campaign.

Bottoms needs a strong showing across the region, where voters know her best. If she underperforms there, it signals a deeper vulnerability than her supporters acknowledge.

Her rivals are also trying to carve out their own paths. DeKalb County is the party’s most important bastion. It’s where Michael Thurmond is staking his claim. He served as the county’s school superintendent and later as chief executive, meaning he knows DeKalb’s political terrain as well as anyone.

Former state Sen. Jason Esteves made a generational pitch in the campaign’s final days, arguing that Bottoms cannot assemble the durable political coalition Democrats will need in November.

And former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan is making a different bet: that his switch to the Democratic Party makes him better suited to appeal to swing voters and crossover Republicans disillusioned with MAGA politics.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Will voters treat the judicial races like partisan contests?

The Georgia Supreme Court contests could offer a preview of November for the marquee races for governor and U.S. Senate.

The Democratic Party has gone all-in behind Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin, who are trying to oust Justices Sarah Warren and Charlie Bethel in officially nonpartisan races.

If either challenger wins, it would mark the most significant judicial election upset in modern Georgia history. No incumbent Georgia Supreme Court justice has lost a reelection bid since 1922.

The most immediate questions are how many voters make it that far down the ballot and how many understand the partisan stakes both parties have attached to these contests.

But the longer-term question is whether Georgia’s judicial races are entering a new era, with courtroom contests once decided by bar association endorsements and legal credentials now playing out as partisan proxy fights.