AUGUSTA — The Augusta National Golf Club may be drier than it’s been since Prohibition.
No significant rain has fallen for a week, and none is expected for the remainder of the tournament. When the pros talk about firm and fast conditions, this is the ultimate definition.
But what does that mean as far as the scores?
“I’m excited to see how it plays this week,” two-time champion Scottie Scheffler said. “This is the best forecast I’ve seen for this tournament in a while.”
Last year, with no weather issues, the average score was 72.807, and Rory McIlroy won 11-under 277. In 2024, with one round delayed because of rain, the course played to 73.906, with Scheffler the winner at 277.
The worst recent episode was 2023, when play was suspended Friday before the cut. The field was unable to complete the third round and caused most of the field to play double-digit holes on the final day. Jon Rahm won the soggy 2023 tournament at 276 when the course played to an average of 72.96.
This week, conditions could cause tee shots to run out more than usual and possibly wind up in the second cut. The greens could be harder to hold, thus forcing players to dial down the aggression.
“If it’s firm and fast, the greens are going to be even more difficult to hit than they already are,” two-time U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau said. “Looking at it from a perspective of hitting the big parts of the greens and sometimes giving myself 30-footers, even though you feel like you’re losing a quarter of a shot. Kind of sticking up for yourself and going, ‘No, this is a great shot, hitting it over here and having my carried be on the same level.”
The strategy worked for DeChambeau in 2024 when he outdueled Rory McIlroy to win the U.S. Open at Pinehurst.
“I was focused more on hitting in the middle of the greens,” DeChambeau said. “If my irons aren’t doing what they should be doing, then it won’t.”
Matt Fitzpatrick is rooting for conditions to be as difficult as possible. It would play into his style of play and force others to change their mindset.
“I’ve always been a conservative player, probably in the right way,” said Fitzpatrick. “I would say I’m probably going to try to hit a 7-iron to the middle of the green or a 5- or 6- right of the flag pretty much every week. Having better approach play now over these last six, eight months, I can be a little bit more aggressive, but that doesn’t stop me from playing away from flags because that’s what I’m used to.”
The greens could be the key. With drives rolling longer, the players should have shorter approach shots. But will the green be too hard for players to get it close?
“Definitely excited to get the week going on the greens,” Scheffler said. “I would imagine they would like the greens to get fast. I think that increases the challenge of the golf course.”
Difficult greens could benefit Masters rookie Jacob Bridgeman, who leads the PGA Tour in putting and putting average, Jake Knapp, the leader in putts per round, and Robert MacIntyre, who leads in one-putt percentage.
“The greens are quite a bit different from Monday, and I think that will continue to be the trend, getting faster, getting firmer,” Bridgeman said.
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