Hawks’ postseason outlook appears brighter following four-game win streak

It makes the outlook just a little brighter for the Hawks, who have had a tumultuous season that included injuries and major roster upheaval. It at least shows a marginally clearer path for the Hawks to go on a run over the final 41 days of the regular season.

Before teams returned to action from the All-Star break, ESPN data scientist Dean Oliver projected that the Hawks would have to go 20-6 in their final 26 games of the regular season to crack the top six in the Eastern Conference.

The Hawks are 6-4 over their last 10 games. They’re 5-1 over the last two weeks, with the NBA’s most efficient defense in that span, according to Cleaning the Glass. Of course, the caveat is that the Hawks played some of the NBA’s most inefficient offenses.

In the last week, the Hawks downed the Wizards twice by considerable margins, along with their blowout win over the short-handed Trail Blazers. But each of those wins signaled that the Hawks may have begun to find some stability following their tinkering with their lineup and rotations.

The Hawks moved second-year forward Zaccharie Risacher to the second unit in favor of veteran CJ McCollum. In moving McCollum to the starting unit, the Hawks now have one of the NBA’s best five-man combinations to open matchups.

The grouping of McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu ranks in the 94th percentile in on/off numbers, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Couple the shake-up of the starting lineup with bringing Risacher off the bench along with veteran guard Gabe Vincent, and the Hawks found a combination that works more efficiently.

That doesn’t even scratch the surface of what the debut of forward Jonathan Kuminga sparked.

In his first three games in a Hawks uniform, Kuminga has averaged a career-best 21.3 points per game. He’s also averaging a career-high 7.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. He’s shooting 67.7% from the floor and has knocked down 55.6% of his 3-point attempts.

Those three games present a small sample size, but it showed the athleticism and slashing that the Hawks have needed this season. His ability to play through contact and draw fouls has also been a boon for the Hawks, who have struggled at times to get to the line this season.

So in taking care of business, the Hawks have positioned themselves to make a possible run for the No. 6 spot when the regular season ends on April 12.

Following Sunday’s win, the Hawks have maintained their hold on the ninth seed in the Eastern Conference ahead of the Hornets. The Hawks have a very small margin of error, with just a half-game lead on the Hornets for home-court advantage in the nine-ten game in the Eastern Conference Play-In tournament.

But things could just as easily swing the other way for the Hawks with 20 games remaining.

The Hawks sit just 1½ games behind the Magic, against whom they have two games in the next 30 days, and the Heat, where they finish the regular season. Both teams sit in seventh and eighth, respectively, and the Hawks could climb up in the standings, as all three teams have similar remaining strength of schedule.

As of March 2, the Hawks rank 19th in the league in remaining strength of schedule, per Tankathon. The Heat and Magic rank 21st and 22nd respectively.

But the Hawks, who sit three games back, could play their way to the sixth seed. The 76ers currently have a hold on that position in the Eastern Conference, despite center Joel Embiid being in and out of the lineup.

The former MVP has played 33 games this season and the 76ers will re-evaluate him on Thursday for an oblique strain that forced him to miss three games. Depending on how that pans out, Embiid could miss the meeting between the Hawks and 76ers, who have the 16th-hardest remaining schedule, on Saturday.

The 76ers are 12-14 this season without Embiid, according to StatMuse, and the Hawks have already won three of the four games against them this season.

So as the Hawks look ahead to their remaining 20 games, nine of the remaining opponents have records above .500. The other five do not, with four of them possibly leaning toward tanking this season.

The Hawks still have plenty to work out with the continued integration of their new pieces, and remaining injury-free is never a sure thing. But the ceiling looks a little higher for them in the final quarter of the regular season.

According to Basketball Reference’s standing projections, the Hawks have just a 4.4% chance of missing the postseason altogether. They have a 4.1% chance of finishing in the top six teams in the Eastern Conference. Those projections are based on 10,000 daily simulations of the remainder of season, including the play-in round.

But with four consecutive wins and gaining momentum, the Hawks look like a team that could be finding its footing at the right time.