As GOP weighs Senate map, Mike Collins fights to stay in the mix

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Thune has said it is too early to abandon the state, even as he acknowledged Republicans soon will have to make difficult decisions about where to spend. He told Semafor “there’s game left to play,” while describing Georgia and North Carolina as “margin-of-error races” on the sprawling map.

The Atlanta event, which involves a roundtable and reception, also marks a notable turn for Kemp, who was once the GOP establishment’s pick to challenge Ossoff before he ruled himself out.

Instead, he backed former football coach Derek Dooley — and spent months warning GOP voters that Collins had too much political baggage to defeat Ossoff.

But Kemp formally endorsed Collins this month and is now putting his name behind the congressman.

Collins casts the event as an undeniable sign his campaign shouldn’t be left for dead.

Credit: Natrice Miller for the AJC

Credit: Natrice Miller for the AJC

“Jon Ossoff’s toxic, far-left record is being exposed and this race is tightening every day,” said Collins campaign spokesperson Meyer Siegfried.

‘Eaten by sharks’

But the show of support comes amid increasingly public signs of Republican anxiety.

National GOP groups have pledged to spend more than $60 million to defeat Ossoff, mostly from the Thune-aligned Senate Leadership Fund. Yet only part of that promised spending has materialized so far, and Republicans are pouring resources into an expanding map that includes defensive battles in Alaska and Ohio and potential pickup opportunities elsewhere.

The group recently canceled about $500,000 worth of reservations in Georgia, saying it’s part of a routine rebalancing to maximize viewership.

There are definite signs of flagging Republican interest in the Georgia race.

At a donor gathering during the Republican midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month, Thune highlighted Senate contests in Alaska, Maine and Michigan.

Georgia went unmentioned.

The New York Times reported that Collins was in the room for a presentation touting four Republican “quality” recruits.

Collins wasn’t included.

And former President George W. Bush and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn are raising money for Republican Senate nominees in a half-dozen battleground states.

Georgia isn’t among them.

Republicans’ ad reservations are outpacing Democrats in eight of nine close Senate races, according to AdImpact data.

Georgia is the only outlier.

Some Republicans are no longer holding their tongues about their concerns with Collins or his campaign.

Cornyn of Texas, a former two-term chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told Semafor that “Georgia looks like it’s pretty close to done.” North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer said Republicans should consider shifting resources to other races.

And in Georgia, the GOP voices that have long raised concerns about Collins are growing louder.

Veteran GOP strategist Jordan Fuchs, a longtime deputy of Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, is among the Republicans who worry that Collins’ false claim that Trump “won” the 2020 election will haunt him with independent and swing voters.

“You can’t win 2026 with a campaign still stuck in 2020. Election denialism doesn’t work here in Georgia, even Stacey Abrams has finally figured that out,” Fuchs said, invoking the Democratic candidate for governor who in 2018 refused to concede defeat.

Of Collins, Fuchs added: “If a guy is already being eaten by sharks, do you throw him a life raft?”

‘A gift to him’

The debate underscores the brutal Senate math Republicans face as they fight to preserve their 53-47 majority.

Any dollar that stays in Georgia is one that can’t be spent on competitive races in perennial battlegrounds like Maine, Michigan or Ohio — or new hot spots such as Iowa, Kansas and Texas where Republicans once were seen as locks.

Collins’ allies argue Republicans aren’t at that point in Georgia.

“Every cycle, someone in Washington leaks that they’re thinking about moving money,” said Georgia GOP chair Josh McKoon. “That’s how the consultant class talks. What matters is who shows up — and what the actual numbers say.”

Outside GOP groups still have millions reserved in the state. A Trump-aligned super PAC, No Going Back, recently added about $2.1 million in Georgia advertising.

Collins has another argument for national Republicans to stay invested: Georgia is one of just two Democratic-held Senate seats on the ballot this cycle in states President Donald Trump carried in 2024. And Ossoff is the only Democratic incumbent seeking reelection in either one.

McKoon pointed to a recent Quantus Insights survey that showed Collins trailing Ossoff by 4 percentage points — an outlier among other recent polls — as evidence the race remains competitive.

“Writing Georgia off while Ossoff is dropping below 50% in public polling would be a gift to him,” he said. “We’re not in the gift-giving business.”

At a Tuesday event in Atlanta where he demanded that Collins release communications involving a former top aide’s efforts to help a jailed Holocaust denier charged with contempt of court, Ossoff was asked about the growing GOP debate over whether to keep spending in Georgia.

“I take no vote for granted. I am not entitled to this Senate seat,” Ossoff said. “That Senate seat does not belong to me. It belongs to the people of the great state of Georgia, and I run every day like I’m behind.”