Democrats see a path to flipping the Georgia House with these 8 races

Georgia Democrats have spent years chipping away at the Republican majority in the state House. This year, they have an outside shot at wiping it out for the first time in more than two decades.

Democrats need a net gain of 10 seats to seize control of the chamber. A takeover is a long shot. But Democrats have a far better chance of narrowing an already thinning GOP majority, leaving Republicans with less wiggle room for defections or even routine absences.

The fight is taking shape across a remarkably broad battlefield, from Atlanta’s northern suburbs to exurban communities and rural stretches of Georgia where both parties see opportunities. And it’s unfolding across districts that will likely be redrawn after the election, meaning some Republicans fighting for political survival this year could get friendlier terrain two years from now while Democrats know a different map could limit their opportunities in 2028.

Democrats have prepared by opening dozens of offices staffed with 160 operatives around the state.

“Georgians need their elected leaders focused on making their lives more affordable, and we’re 10 winnable seats away from flipping the House chamber and making it happen,” said Georgia House Minority Leader Carolyn Hugley.

Republicans, meanwhile, have spent the last two years preparing to defend their turf. House Speaker Jon Burns built a full-time political operation with year-round field staff to defend vulnerable incumbents and target other seats.

That makes the Democratic math to reach the 91 seats needed for control of the 180-member chamber particularly unforgiving.

“If Democrats don’t expect we’re going to take this seriously, they’re wrong,” said Carmen Foskey Bergman, executive director of Georgia House Republican Caucus.

These eight races show both the promise — and the peril — of Democrats’ path to 91.

Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

HD 44: Don Parsons vs. Danielle Bell

This is where Democrats are testing the outer reaches of the battlefield.

Republican state Rep. Don Parsons is no newcomer to competitive politics. The longtime Cobb County lawmaker has been in the Legislature for decades and survived a close challenge in 2020.

But his district is tougher terrain for Democrats than other targets: Republican President Trump carried it by nearly 9 percentage points in 2024, when Parsons defeated Democrat Danielle Bell 57-43.

Bell is trying again. A clinical therapist, she has centered her campaign on affordability and healthcare. National Democrats see enough potential that the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee added Bell to its roster of top races.

If Parsons is in danger on election night, it means Democrats are probably having a very good night elsewhere, too.

Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

HD 48: Scott Hilton vs. Adam Cleveland

Scott Hilton may be the ultimate suburban survivor.

The Peachtree Corners Republican was first elected to the House in another north metro Atlanta district before losing during the Democratic suburban surge of 2018 that flipped 11 House seats.

Four years later, after a stint in Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s administration, he returned to the Capitol by defeating state Rep. Mary Robichaux.

His last victory in 2024 wasn’t particularly close. Then Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won the district by a razor’s edge, but Hilton defeated Democrat Laura Murvartian by nearly 10 percentage points.

His deep community ties and focus on consensus issues — he sponsored a popular law banning cellphone use in K-12 public schools — helped him build a political identity separate from the national GOP.

Democrat Adam Cleveland, a Johns Creek attorney and small-business owner, is trying to break that streak. He paints Trump as a liar and the GOP-controlled legislature as one of his enablers.

“At this point,” he said, “it’s childish and embarrassing for both of them.”

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

House District 53: Deborah Silcox vs. Beth Fuller

Silcox has been here before.

The Sandy Springs Republican spent much of her political career on the front lines of one of the most competitive seats in Georgia, where split-ticket voters back Democrats in marquee races while voting Republican in some down-ticket contests.

The split was particularly striking in 2024 when Silcox defeated Democrat Susie Greenberg by 4 percentage points in the same election that Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, carried the district by nearly 7 percentage points.

Silcox knows what losing looks like: Democrat Shea Roberts ousted her from a different House seat in 2020. Silcox returned to the Legislature in a reconfigured district two years later.

While Silcox is trying to cultivate an image as a nuts-and-bolts legislator willing to break with her party on some polarizing measures, Democrat Beth Fuller is trying to make Trump harder to escape.

She worked as a contractor at the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for a decade before losing her job amid Trump-ordered federal cuts. The upheaval at the CDC, along with her background in healthcare policy, is central to her campaign.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

HD 105: Sandy Donatucci vs. Farooq Mughal

Republican Sandy Donatucci defeated Democratic state Rep. Farooq Mughal by just 80 votes in 2024. Now, Mughal is back for the pair’s third matchup in a north Gwinnett-based district that is tilting steadily more Democratic. Harris carried it in 2024 by nearly 3 percentage points.

For Democrats, it is about as close to a must-win as any GOP seat can be. Mughal beat Donatucci in 2022 and represented the district for a term before Donatucci ousted him. He’s aiming to nationalize the race, asking voters to “sit back and kind of imagine exactly where we are heading” under Trump.

Donatucci is taking the opposite approach. The real estate agent is focusing her pitch on local concerns and her record at the Capitol, including the creation of the city of Mulberry.

“Voters in my community rejected his radical liberal record in 2024,” she said, “and I have no doubt they will do so again in 2026.”

Credit: arvin.temkar@ajc.com

HD 121: Eric Gisler vs. Mack ‘Dutch’ Guest

Perhaps no race better captures Democrats’ ambitions or their vulnerabilities.

Trump carried the Athens-area district by more than 12 percentage points in 2024. Republican Marcus Wiedower handily defeated Gisler 61-39 in that same election.

Then Wiedower surprised many by resigning, and Gisler stunned Republicans by upsetting Republican Mack “Dutch” Guest in the special election that followed.

Democratic leaders quickly heralded Gisler’s victory as evidence that even voters in ruby-red districts were willing to cross party lines during Trump’s second term. Republicans saw it as a product of a low-turnout special election.

Now Gisler and Guest are headed for a rematch. Holding the seat would be a coup for Democrats. Losing it would make their already difficult path to 91 even harder.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

HD 128: Tyrone A. Evans vs. Trey Sheppard

This is the other side of the Democrats’ ambitious map.

State Rep. Mack Jackson barely survived the 2024 election, defeating Republican Tracy Wheeler by 48 votes out of nearly 28,000 cast in a rural east Georgia seat Trump easily carried.

The result was so close in the Sandersville-based district that Wheeler challenged the outcome after some voters received incorrect ballots, though a judge declined to order a new election.

Now Jackson is retiring. And Democrats nominated Tyrone A. Evans, a Baldwin County accountant and business owner, to replace him.

Republicans are backing Trey Sheppard, a Sandersville business executive whose family operates a logistics company.

The district may be one of the clearest Republican pickup opportunities, making it central to the takeover math.

HD 145: Tangie Herring vs. Eric Wilson

This Middle Georgia district is another reminder that Democrats have little room for error.

Longtime public schoolteacher Tangie Herring won the newly drawn, majority-Black seat in 2024 by fewer than 300 votes over Republican Noah Harbuck in a district stretching across Macon-Bibb and Monroe counties.

The narrow margin was something of a surprise for Democrats in territory created during the court-ordered redistricting that added new majority-Black districts to the state House map.

Now Republican Eric Wilson, a paramedic who owns a medical transport firm, is challenging Herring on a platform pledging to eliminate property taxes and crack down on illegal immigration.

National Democrats have flagged the race as a priority and Herring is highlighting her votes to expand mental health supports and make it easier to build affordable housing.

Credit: Courtesy photo

HD 154: Gerald Greene vs. Harry James

Southwest Georgia Republican state Rep. Gerald Greene is a political throwback whose district has long defied the usual partisan rules.

Greene was first elected to the House in 1982 as a Democrat and switched to the GOP after the 2010 election.

Now he’s figured out a formula to remain in office despite representing terrain that has increasingly tilted to Democrats. He is the only Republican in the General Assembly who represents a majority-Black district.

Greene has kept beating the odds partly through old-fashioned retail politics, building a reputation for showing up everywhere across his sprawling district.

He has also benefited from Democratic miscues. The latest was last cycle, when Greene didn’t face an opponent at all after the contender was disqualified from the ballot.

Democrat Harry James is challenging him this year, giving the party another chance to unseat a longtime rural Georgia nemesis.

History shows why Democratic insiders aren’t overly optimistic. Greene has survived tough challenges before, including a 52-48 win over Joyce Barlow in 2020.

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