What to watch in Georgia’s Senate and governor runoffs

In the Senate race, Kemp and Derek Dooley wrapped up a sprint of joint events. Collins spent the campaign’s final stretch trying to capitalize on Trump’s endorsement and his strength in rural Georgia.

Here are the key storylines to watch Tuesday night.

The metro Atlanta divide

The Senate runoff is shaping up as a battle between metro Atlanta and the rest of Georgia.

Dooley’s path runs through the suburbs and exurbs, where he performed best in the May primary. Collins dominated rural Georgia, beating Dooley by 22 percentage points outside Atlanta’s sprawl and other urban areas.

That means Dooley hopes to push 60% in Republican-rich counties such as Cobb — the biggest trove of GOP votes in the May primary — while running up double-digit margins in more exurban places like Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall and Paulding. He also needs to blunt Collins’ advantage across South Georgia and other rural strongholds.

For Collins, the formula is simpler: cut into Dooley’s metro Atlanta margins and pile up overwhelming wins across rural Georgia. If he’s posting 80-20 victories in many of the state’s deepest-red counties while staying close in Atlanta, it will be a very good night for the congressman.

The governor’s race is more complicated. Jones and Jackson split the five core metro Atlanta counties in May and ran neck-and-neck across much of the suburban belt that rings the city. Jones earned his first-place finish by building an 11-point advantage in rural Georgia.

Jackson has spent the runoff relentlessly targeting metro Atlanta voters while trying to narrow Jones’ rural edge. Jones, meanwhile, hopes the unlikely alliance of Kemp and Trump will win over fence-sitters and voters who skipped the first round.

One county we’re watching closely is Habersham, where the two candidates finished in an exact tie in May. The deep-red county could offer an early clue about whether either candidate has gained ground.

The power of late endorsements

Credit: AP and AJC

Credit: AP and AJC

The biggest question of the runoff may be whether the Sunday spree of endorsements can move enough voters to matter.

Early voting ended Friday, before Trump and Kemp weighed in. Turnout in precincts that most heavily backed Collins and Jones fell more sharply than precincts favoring their rivals.

The number of ballots cast before Election Day is less than half the early voting total from May.

Both Jackson and Dooley believe they performed well among early voters. But Jones and Collins are counting on Election Day turnout and the power of fresh endorsements to close the gap.

Where do supporters of defeated candidates go?

Credit: AJC

Credit: AJC

A significant share of the electorate backed candidates who are no longer on the ballot.

In the governor’s race, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr combined for roughly a quarter of the vote in May. Armed with Carr’s endorsement and a new advertising campaign, Jackson has aggressively targeted those voters.

What’s unclear is whether they break decisively toward one candidate or simply stay home.

The same dynamic is at play in the Senate runoff, where U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter captured a quarter of the vote in May and dominated coastal Georgia.

He’s stayed neutral in the runoff, leaving both Collins and Dooley racing to win over his supporters. Their performance in Carter’s home turf, along with precincts in metro Atlanta where he was competitive, may prove decisive.

Kemp’s legacy on the line

Credit: Arvin Temkar/Atlanta Journal-Con

Credit: Arvin Temkar/Atlanta Journal-Con

For a politician whose name isn’t on the ballot, Kemp has an extraordinary amount riding on Tuesday’s results.

The governor recruited Dooley into the Senate race, campaigned with him across the state and made the case that the former football coach was Republicans’ strongest challenger against Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff.

And in a move that stunned Georgia’s political class, he gave an eleventh-hour endorsement to Jones in the race to succeed him.

If Dooley loses, Kemp’s electability argument takes a major hit. If Jones loses, Kemp will have backed the wrong candidate in the contest to replace him. If both lose, it becomes a painful reminder of the limits of his political influence in the waning days of his second term.

But if both win, Kemp can claim the mantle of Georgia GOP kingmaker, with influence rivaled only by Trump.

Data editor Charles Minshew contributed to this report.