Buddy Carter lost. His voters could decide the GOP runoff for U.S. Senate.

The fate of Carter’s voters could prove one of the biggest wild cards in a contest to face Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff in November.

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Carter’s strength came from his southeast Georgia district, and he won his congressional territory outright. But he also drew tens of thousands of votes across the rest of the state, giving both runoff contenders extra reason to chase his voters.

Longtime Republican activists and local leaders say it is difficult to predict where Carter’s voters will land.

“Dooley is working the ground game as hard as his dad (Vince Dooley) would have coached Georgia’s running backs,” said John Wood, a former GOP chair in the 1st Congressional District that Carter represents. “But I think you’ll still see a split among Buddy’s voters.”

Interviews with voters showed the divide. Randy Turner, a retired contractor from rural Emanuel County, said he was drawn to Collins precisely because he doesn’t see much difference between the two members of Congress.

“I’m not going to vote for Derek Dooley because he’s Vince Dooley’s son, and a lot of people are,” said Turner, invoking the legendary Georgia football coach. “He really doesn’t have a whole lot to fall back on as far as proving what he can do and will do, but Collins does have a record that he can talk about.”

Blaine Salter of Athens voted for Carter in the primary because of his extensive experience in elected office, which includes stints in the Georgia Legislature and six terms in Congress. Now, he plans to vote for Dooley, partly because of his outsider appeal.

“Out of all the candidates left,” Salter said, “I think he just has the right temperament.”

Chasing Carter’s coalition

Both candidates are courting Carter’s supporters, but they’re doing so from different starting points.

Throughout much of the primary, Dooley largely steered clear of direct attacks on Carter, often praising the congressman’s record and service.

Collins took the opposite approach, airing ads that questioned Carter’s effectiveness in Congress and using social media to needle him over everything from his campaign stumbles to his height.

Now both are asking for the support of the same voters. Dooley has made Carter’s coalition a centerpiece of his runoff strategy. At a recent campaign stop in suburban Sandy Springs, he noted that Carter drew more than 8,300 votes in Fulton County alone, evidence the congressman’s appeal extended well beyond his southeast Georgia base.

“They might have voted for somebody just because they knew him before and didn’t know me,” he said. “So, the more we can educate people on who I am and what our campaign stands for, we start getting more and more voters. And we’ve seen that over the last three months.”

The strategy appears to be working with some Carter backers. Kevin Gough of St. Simons Island said Gov. Brian Kemp’s full-throated support was enough to move him into Dooley’s camp for the second round.

“Brian Kemp’s endorsement still carries great weight with me. I knew Buddy Carter personally, and that outweighed the endorsement,” he said. “But I have no connection to Collins.”

Collins, meanwhile, has scheduled a series of events across Carter’s district and is leaning on relationships built over years in Republican politics. State Rep. Mike Cheokas of Americus, a Carter supporter who is now backing Collins, said those personal ties matter.

“I’ve known Mike for years — and I’ve known him longer than I’ve known Derek,” he said. “You develop personal relationships. Those still matter in my book. And I’m not trying to play favorites or play politics. I’m just backing my friends.”

Credit: Arvin Temkar/Atlanta Journal-Con

Credit: Arvin Temkar/Atlanta Journal-Con

Whether Collins’ earlier attacks leave any lingering resentment remains an open question. Bert Brantley, a Kemp ally who heads the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, said voters in coastal Georgia noticed the contrast between the two campaigns.

“The Collins ads were really, really aggressive and mean-spirited against Carter,” he said. “The talk of the town here was that if he was going to endorse, he would never back Collins. Buddy’s name and voice still matter.”

The larger challenge for both campaigns may be getting Carter’s supporters back to the polls at all.

“The great bulk of the effort in a runoff is simply motivation,” said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock. “Sometimes the drop-off in participation is so great that even if the candidate that finished second gets all of their supporters to come back, they would win.”

Carter, for his part, has been clear that his supporters must chart their own courses even as he processes his defeat.

“The biggest regret I would have ever had was to get on the front porch, on the rocking chair, thinking I wish I would have tried it,” he said. “I wish both of them well, and make no mistake about it, I’ll be supporting our Republican nominee.”