Shawn Harris walks ‘the tightest tightrope’ to flip deep-red Georgia seat

“We know an uphill fight when we see one, but I believe this district can turn heads all around the country and all around the world,” Buttigieg told a packed audience in Rome.

Harris is trying to stitch together a coalition of Democrats, independents and even some crossover Republicans in one of Georgia’s reddest districts. It’s a daunting task against Fuller, a former prosecutor with President Donald Trump’s blessing and broad GOP support.

The retired U.S. Army officer’s campaign is betting that a message centered on kitchen-table concerns — from tariffs to foreign policy — can resonate beyond the Democratic base even in this GOP-leaning corner of Georgia.

But that also means threading a needle. Parachuting in high-profile liberals could backfire. Bringing in people with military or economic credibility, Democratic strategist Fred Hicks said, may carry more weight in a district that hasn’t elected a Democrat since it was created after the 2010 Census.

“Democrats need to take the gift they’ve been given with Fuller — a candidate who says he’s fully supporting Trump on everything — and tie those actions to him every chance they get,” Hicks said.

A familiar playbook

The race echoes another long-shot Georgia special election nearly a decade ago.

In the 2017 contest in Atlanta’s suburbs, Jon Ossoff tried to build a coalition of liberal Democrats and Trump-skeptical Republicans in a GOP-leaning district. He drew enormous national attention and record-setting fundraising but mostly kept national party figures at arm’s length.

He avoided campaign appearances with then-House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, a favorite target of GOP attacks. He dodged questions about whether he would support her for speaker, saying repeatedly he hadn’t “given it an ounce of thought.”

Even as liberal figures like U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders backed his insurgent bid, Ossoff rarely amplified those ties. Instead, he leaned on local backers and a tightly controlled message about bringing jobs and prosperity to a district that spanned much of Atlanta’s northern arc.

Credit: Chad Rhym/AJC

Credit: Chad Rhym/AJC

Ossoff drew significant crossover support — roughly 1 in 5 Republican voters backed him in the initial round — and showed his party had a path in what was then the solidly GOP territory surrounding Atlanta. But he ultimately fell to Republican Karen Handel in the runoff.

Harris, by contrast, has been more willing to center Trump in his campaign — a risk in a district the president carried overwhelmingly. He’s pairing that with a message focused on lowering health care costs and improving quality of life.

“Democrats, independents and, yes, Republicans can come together for hope, come together for change and come together for somebody that’s going to stand up for them,” he said.

That approach doesn’t change the math.

Harris, a cattle rancher turned politician, led the 17-candidate field in the first round, narrowly edging Fuller while gaining ground in most precincts compared to 2024. Democrats combined for roughly 40% of the vote — a high-water mark for the party in the district.

But a victory will require a double-digit swing in the runoff. What’s more, Republicans sidestepped a more controversial contender and instead coalesced behind Fuller, who is aggressively reminding voters that Trump endorsed him.

The history of special elections doesn’t make it any easier. The last time a Georgia congressional seat flipped in a special election was in 1872, according to University of Minnesota political scientist Eric Ostermeier. Few of the roughly 30 races since have been competitive.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

“It’s hard to imagine that anyone you bring in will affect the outcome,” University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock said.

“It’s not just walking a tightrope. He has to hope for more than that,” he said. “He’s got to walk the tightest tightrope and then hope for a disaster to win this.”

‘Permanently red’?

Harris is frank about the challenge. In an interview minutes after polls closed last week, he said he’s not pretending the district will soon flip blue or even purple. He prefers to call it pinkish.

“I would not be here tonight if Democrats didn’t show up for me, if independents didn’t pull my way,” he said. “But I also wouldn’t be here if a significant amount of Republicans didn’t vote for me.”

At the Rome rally, Buttigieg joked that the event rivaled the crowd Trump drew during a February visit to a nearby steel plant as he argued that political shifts can happen in unlikely places.

“There’s no such thing as a permanently red district or town,” Buttigieg said.

Among those in the crammed audience was Summer Cox, a Dallas resident who said she came out of curiosity — and a desire to become more engaged.

Though she supports Harris, she said she has voted for both Republicans and Democrats and is frustrated by the deepening divide that dominates American politics.

“I think we all kind of want, instead of picking sides or red versus blue, to stop poking fingers,” she said. “There’s no substance behind it — it’s like a reality TV show in politics instead of actual meaningful changes.”

Harris, for his part, said he doesn’t plan to rely on political star power but old-fashioned shoe-leather.

On the night of his victory, Harris laid out plans for his campaign staff and volunteers to return to the more than 90,000 doors they knocked during the first round.

“Leaders don’t need to stand behind anybody else. I stand on my own two feet,” he said.

“That’s why people voted for me. I don’t have to have someone like Donald Trump come to town to say Shawn Harris is a leader. Shawn Harris has a record that stands on its own.”

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC