Northwest Georgia voters take the first step in finding Greene’s successor

Here’s what we’re watching.

Democratic turnout

Don’t be surprised if Democrat Shawn Harris — a retired Army general who shattered Democratic voting records against Greene in 2024 — finishes as the top vote-getter Tuesday night. Harris is courting not just the district’s small Democratic base but also independents frustrated with Trump, Greene and MAGA politics more broadly.

Republicans are less worried about a Democratic stealth victory after an influx of GOP spending and Trump’s in-person visit to Rome last month to rally supporters. Still, Harris has raised more than $4.2 million, and a strong showing could signal Democratic energy that reverberates beyond this district.

Trump’s political muscle

Eager to avoid another unpredictable Greene-like firebrand, Trump and senior Georgia Republicans rallied behind former prosecutor Clay Fuller, a military veteran and former district attorney who represents a more conventional brand of GOP politics.

A dozen Republicans are in the race, but Fuller’s main GOP rival is former state Sen. Colton Moore, a provocateur who was expelled from the conservative Senate GOP caucus for threatening rivals and even got into a jaw-dropping wrestling match with an aide to House Speaker Jon Burns after being barred from the chamber.

A Moore victory wouldn’t signal a break from MAGA — he’s fiercely loyal to Trump — but it would show the limits of the president’s sway even among his own base.

The GOP’s next act

After largely sitting out Greene’s insurgent rise in 2020, Georgia GOP leaders are trying to shape the outcome this time by rallying behind Fuller. The question for voters is whether they want another grenade-thrower in Greene’s mold or a lower-profile conservative focused on legislation and constituent work?

Some Republicans say they’re exhausted by Greene’s constant controversies. Others see her confrontational style as exactly what Washington needs.

An enthusiasm gauge

Special elections are usually low-turnout affairs. But Tuesday’s vote could offer an early read on how energized each party’s voters are in the Trump era.

Harris won roughly 36% of the vote against Greene in 2024 — easily setting a high-water mark for Democrats in the 14th. If the three Democrats in Tuesday’s race combine to break 40%, it would indicate Democratic voters remain highly motivated even in one of Georgia’s most reliably Republican regions.

What’s next?

The top two voter-getters Tuesday will move to an April 7 runoff to determine who will serve out the remainder of Greene’s term in Congress.

The winner — and probably several losers — will have to jump right back into campaign mode. The party primaries for the 2026 midterms are May 14, with early voting starting April 27.

The primaries could very well force a June 16 runoff to see which candidates can advance to the Nov. 3 general election.

Politics editor Chris Joyner contributed to this report.