Beltline light rail could generate 4.2 million trips, study says

It doesn’t account for future land use growth and densification, which are expected to increase along the Beltline similar to what happened on the Eastside after the first trail segment was built there.

But even conservatively, it would create a light rail system in Atlanta on par, ridership-wise, with those in cities such as Baltimore and Charlotte, North Carolina. And it would substantially expand the reach and ridership of the existing Atlanta Streetcar, which recorded just under 217,000 trips last year.

The final recommendations are largely the same as the draft plans presented this time last year: three loops of light rail encircling the city, 22 miles in all. One would run the full length of the Beltline, and two loops would connect to downtown by extending the existing streetcar route east and west.

Riders could catch a train in either direction every 10 minutes.

The projections give a peek into who those riders might be. An estimated 40% rely solely on public transit, with the remaining considered “choice” riders who use transit even when they have other travel options.

At least a fifth of the total trips would come from riders who would otherwise drive, taking those cars off the road, the study says.

“We are providing the service to people who need it most, and we are decongesting the roadways for the people who do not care,” Green said.

The data show that building new MARTA train stations at locations where the heavy rail route intersects with the Beltline could be key to achieving ridership. An estimated 55% of the trips are expected to start at one of four proposed stations.

Now comes the hard part: figuring out where to start and how to pay for it all. The light rail alone could cost at least $3.5 billion, and the new MARTA stations have been estimated at $1.3 billion.

Credit: Courtesy of the Atlanta BeltLine, Inc

Credit: Courtesy of the Atlanta BeltLine, Inc

The segment where design is farthest along, and where work could start soonest, is the Eastside portion, which would extend the current streetcar route to Ponce City Market.

That project was thrust into limbo last year when Mayor Andre Dickens pulled his support and said he wanted to start construction near the proposed Murphy Crossing redevelopment instead.

Then, a group of officials from the city of Atlanta, the Beltline and MARTA voted to stop all work on the Eastside project — a decision that was not publicly known for more than half a year, until The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on the vote.

Beltline officials did not make a recommendation on where to start construction. That’s a political decision, Green said.

“Clear political direction would help us out so much,” he said.

Green said he’s hopeful that direction is coming.

MARTA’s decision last month to pay $52 million to settle a long-running audit dispute with the city marks a big step forward. It frees up additional money that could go toward light rail, as well as resets what has been a tense relationship with the mayor’s office and the City Council.

The order of projects is likely to be determined in tandem with the negotiation of an updated intergovernmental agreement between the city, MARTA and the Beltline. City Council members have asked for more say in the project prioritization.

Residents have 90 days to give feedback on the transit study’s recommendations and can do so at beltline.org.