WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump reshaped this year’s U.S. Senate map by sidelining some Republican incumbents and promoting loyalists to replace them. Now the question is whether he’ll put his money where his mouth is.
With four months to go until November’s elections, it's still unclear how much MAGA Inc., the country's largest political war chest with $382 million in the bank as of last month, plans to spend on key races. The silence has persisted even as Senate Republican leaders have urged Trump’s team, both privately and publicly, to pick up the tab for the president’s decisions.
Front and center is Texas, where Trump successfully endorsed fiery conservative Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn, a choice that some Republicans grumble has turned a safe election into a toss-up that will drain resources away from other battlegrounds. Democratic nominee James Talarico, a state lawmaker, has made Paxton's history of corruption allegations a central target of his campaign.
“The president picked Paxton, and he’s got $350 million dollars," Cornyn recently told Semafor. “I think he can spend his money.”
Another challenge has emerged in North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis declined to run for reelection after feuding with Trump last year over healthcare spending. Trump backed Michael Whatley, his former handpicked chair of the Republican National Committee, to run instead, and Democrats hope to flip the seat with former Gov. Roy Cooper.
Some in Republican campaign leadership are expecting MAGA Inc. to pitch in for Whatley in North Carolina, where the state’s several metro media markets can be pricey.
Republicans will likely be able to count on generous support from well-funded official party committees, which the U.S. Supreme Court ruled earlier this week should be allowed to make unlimited direct contributions to candidates’ campaigns. But even that sum falls short of what Trump has stockpiled in MAGA Inc. Even though the president is constitutionally barred from running again, he began raising money shortly after winning a second term, and he's regularly held fundraisers at his resort properties where tickets cost $1 million per person.
James Blair, the former White House political director who left his government job to coordinate the president's midterm efforts, was evasive in an interview with Sean Spicer, a former Republican spokesman who hosts a podcast.
“The president is going to expend substantial resources to win the midterms,” said Blair. “He cares deeply about the party winning.”
As a super PAC, MAGA Inc. can raise unlimited money from individuals and corporations. However, it is barred from coordinating with individual campaigns or national Republican committees, which adds to the sense of mystery surrounding its plans.
It’s been more than two months since Blair, along with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, pollster Tony Fabrizio and political adviser Chris LaCivita huddled at Washington’s Waldorf Astoria to discuss MAGA Inc.'s strategy.
The huddle was focused on assembling teams of vendors, such as advertisers, canvassing providers and digital media company leaders who had worked with the Trump team in key states during previous elections and who would be dispatched once plans were in place.
The president has spent much of the year waging a war of retribution against Republicans who have crossed him. He viewed Cornyn as insufficiently loyal, held a grudge against Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana for voting to convict him in an impeachment trial and assailed Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky as the “worst Republican Congressman in history." All of them lost their primaries to Trump-backed challengers.
Cornyn's loss weighs heavily on Senate Republicans, who suggest that Paxton could cost the party an extra $100 million to defend the seat.
Senate Leadership Fund, the principal super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, is still expected to spend money on advertising in Texas but not play a central role given its obligations elsewhere.
Democrats must net four seats to take the majority, and they see Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio as their best opportunities. The Senate Leadership Fund has already committed to spending $342 million across these four states, plus Iowa, Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
When Paxton came to Washington after winning the nomination on May 26, he had a cordial meeting with Thune focused on moving forward together, according to people with knowledge of the conversation who were not authorized to speak publicly.
Later that day, Thune suggested that Trump should be putting up money for a candidate whom Senate Republicans hadn’t asked for.
“We will do what we need to do to make sure the state stays red," Thune told reporters. "But I’m certainly hopeful the president and the resources he can bring to bear will be engaged.”
“It’s going to be an expensive race,” he added.
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Associated Press White House correspondent Seung Min Kim contributed from Washington. Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa.
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