7 predictions for Georgia’s 2026 legislative session

State lawmakers will fill the Capitol today for the start of a 40-day session. Their only constitutionally required duty is to pass the state budget by April 2, when the final gavel is set to come down. But they’ll also pass hundreds of other pieces of legislation that will shape how we live.

Here are a few predictions for what’s ahead:

1. Gov. Brian Kemp will take a big bite out of the surplus. The governor’s agenda is a closely guarded secret, with even legislative leaders in the dark. But we’re betting he dips deeper into the state’s roughly $15 billion surplus in his final year in office. Think capital projects, more tax rebates and other one-time expenses. Why now? Well, here’s one way to view it: with a wide open race for governor, can he really be sure that a fellow Republican will be in charge of the checkbook this time next year?

2. House-Senate relations won’t be rainbows and sunshine. Yes, we know House Speaker Jon Burns said he’ll let bygones be bygones after Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’ surprise mic drop abruptly ended last year’s session earlier than expected. But don’t expect smooth sailing. We’re watching for House leaders to make some moves to assert their independence.

3. Culture wars go on the back burner. After years of debate over abortion limits, gun rights expansions, religious liberty bills and transgender restrictions, this could be the year social issues get sidelined. There will still be red-meat election-year fodder, particularly in the Jones-led Senate. Expect new fronts over MAGA targets like diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, but they won’t dominate the session.

4. Data centers become an even sharper political fault line. Communities are increasingly vocal about the strain data centers put on power grids and infrastructure even as lawmakers weigh job growth and tax revenue. Data centers were top of mind in last year’s Democratic flip of two Public Service Commission seats and are poised to influence statewide and legislative races again. A late-year audit questioning whether tax breaks for data centers are worth the cost could pour gasoline on the debate.

5. A tax impasse looms. The Senate wants to kick off a six-year process to eliminate the income tax by 2032. The House will tap the breaks, focusing instead on slowing the growth of property taxes. Kemp will play referee, backing more gradual tax cuts but cautioning against a more wholesale overhaul that could risk undermining Georgia’s balance sheet. The final reckoning will be left to the next administration.

6. Democrats will find new ways to fight back. Last year, Democrats flexed their political muscles in unconventional ways. They gave long, time-killing speeches about ho-hum bills, deployed procedural roadblocks and, in a dramatic show of defiance, walked out of the House during debate over a transgender-related measure. Now, entering a new session after a string of off-year victories, Democrats are poised to test fresh tactics to make life more complicated for Republicans, particularly as “affordability” looms large as a defining voter concern.

7. Trump administration moves will be the wildcard. With billions of dollars in health care funding cuts at the federal level last year, state budget writers tell us they won’t know exactly what the state budget will look like until it’s clear what cuts to dozens of federal programs mean here at home. Add to that new tariffs, health insurance subsidy cuts, and possible federal moves on immigration detention in Georgia, and responding to the president’s new policies may be a moving target for lawmakers this session.

Things to know

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

Good morning! We’re 57 days away from the special election to succeed Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress. We’re 127 days away from the primary for U.S. Senate, governor and other races.

Here are three other things to know for today:

Tread lightly

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns gave reporters a tour of the newly refurbished House chamber last week. The most politically beneficial portion was likely beneath his feet.

For the first time, the carpet in the state Capitol comes from Georgia. The new carpet featuring yellow flowers on a red background was made in Dalton, known as the carpet capital of the world.

More than 80% of the U.S. carpet market is controlled by four companies, and all of them are headquartered in Georgia. That includes Shaw Industries, which won the bid to furnish the new Capitol carpet.

Gerald Pilgrim, deputy executive director of the Georgia Building Authority, said they tried to match the previous carpet as close as possible. He said the design is slightly different than the previous version.

Credit: Adam Beam/AJC

Credit: Adam Beam/AJC

Ad watch

Republican Clay Fuller is launching his first digital ad today as he campaigns to replace former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress.

Titled “America First,” the ad highlights Fuller’s experience as an Air Force veteran, White House fellow and prosecutor. It brags about him throwing the book at what it calls “murderers, predators and thugs.”

Today is the first day candidates can begin qualifying for the special election in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District. Fuller plans to file today. He is one of many vying to replace Greene, who resigned following a falling out with President Donald Trump.

Listen up

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast we preview the priorities and potential impasses lawmakers face for the 2026 legislative session. Then Patricia Murphy talks about her interview with House Speaker Jon Burns about his legislative goals.

You can listen and subscribe to Politically Georgia for free an Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

Affordability battle

Georgia Democrats have been working to claim the “affordability” message heading into this year’s election cycle. Now, House Republicans are pushing back.

Georgia’s Future, an outside political group affiliated with Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns, is launching a digital ad today highlighting the Republican caucus’ votes aimed at cutting taxes and reducing insurance rates. It also spotlights Burns’ goal this year of eliminating property taxes on primary residences.

“Conservatives in the Georgia House are delivering on affordability,” a narrator says during he 30-second ad.

Under the Gold Dome

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

It’s the first day of the legislative session. Some key dates to know: Crossover Day is March 3 and Sine Die is April 2. Some of today’s happenings:

Health care talks

Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

If Congress passes legislation to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies without eliminating policies with $0 premiums, U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., will get the credit.

Warnock made a compelling argument to his Senate colleagues last week that limiting $0 coverage harms Georgia and other states that did not expand Medicaid because they have more low-income families without insurance coverage. Republican senators conveyed that message to their counterparts in the House, noting that most of the 10 states that did not expand Medicaid are led by Republicans.

Punchbowl News was the first to report about Warnock’s impact on the discussions as lawmakers try to work out a bipartisan solution with enough support to pass.

The House passed a bill last week to extend the subsidies for three years. It did not change provisions that allow low-income families to purchase coverage at low- or no-cost. That legislation, however, does not have the votes to pass in the Senate, leading to discussions about a new proposal that could couple an extension with other program limitations.

Today in Washington

Helene relief

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff is asking Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins for an update on when relief dollars approved to help farmers recover from Hurricane Helene will reach Georgia.

State and federal officials announced in September that $531 million will be coming to Georgia in the form of a block grant. That was a little more than a year after Helene made landfall in Florida before passing through Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee.

Ossoff sent a letter to Rollins today noting the agreement to unlock those dollars is still not finished, although the state has set up its program to accept applications.

“You have already finalized block grant agreements with Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina, but not Georgia,” the senator’s letter said. “The State of Georgia is ready. Georgia farmers are waiting for USDA.”

Sad news

The Capitol will be without a familiar face this session. Joe Sports, a former lobbyist, journalist, Capitol Hill staffer and executive director of the Democratic Party of Georgia died last week. He was 91.

Sports was a Douglas native and Army veteran whose resume included roles with a slew of Georgia news outlets and lawmakers. Along with reporting for the Douglas Enterprise and WALB-TV in Albany, he worked on the staffs of former U.S. Reps. Iris Blitch and Dawson Mathis and former U.S. Sens. David Gambrell and Sam Nunn.

The veteran politico eventually became an Atlanta-based lobbyist and, in later years, founded and authored the “Georgia Beat” politics newsletter, which published its final edition in November.

Visitation and funeral services for Sports will be held this afternoon at Douglas First Methodist Church.

Shoutouts

Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that. Click here to submit the shoutouts. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.

Before you go

In a recent interview with Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens for his “expedTIously” YouTube show, rapper T.I. went where only a celebrity interviewer can venture — into the busy mayor’s dating status.

That’ll do it for us today. As always, you can send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.